Dear readers, I believe the application for April 2023 Singapore Savings Bonds will open soon.
What will be the 10-year average yield of the April 2023 Singapore Savings Bonds?
The 10-year average annual yield of the March 2023 Singapore Savings Bonds was 2.9%, which I think is quite expected to many savers and supporters of the Singapore Savings Bonds, given that interest rates of the Singapore Savings Bonds has come down.
As a recap, the 10-year average yield of the February 2023 Singapore Savings Bond is 2.97% and hence the 10-year average yield of the March 2023 Singapore Savings Bonds is 2.36% lower than that of the February 2023 Singapore Savings Bonds.
Let us take a look at the average 10-year interest of the recent Singapore Savings Bonds as below.
March 2023 Singapore Savings Bonds: 2.90%
February 2023 Singapore Savings Bonds: 2.97%
January 2023 Singapore Savings Bonds: 3.26%
December 2022 Singapore Savings Bonds: 3.47%
November 2022 Singapore Savings Bonds: 3.21%
October 2022 Singapore Savings Bonds: 2.75%
September 2022 Singapore Savings Bonds: 2.80%
August 2022 Singapore Savings Bonds: 2.88%
July 2022 Singapore Savings Bonds: 2.71%
Numbers alone, as above may not be as interesting. Hence, I have plotted the above data of the average 10-year interest together with the moving 3-month average (of the average 10-year interest of each month bond) on the graph below. What is the 3-month average? Well, take for example, the Jan 23 to Mar 23 Singapore Savings Bond; the 3-month interest is at 3.04% (i.e. average of 33.26% (Jan 23), 2.97% (Feb 23) and 2.90% (Mar 23)).
From the graph, we can see how the monthly average 10-year interest (blue line) continues to go below the 3-month average (orange line) and this downtrend started in Jan 23.
I believe the trend will persist and hence of the view that the April 2023 Singapore Savings Bonds will go below the 2.90% in terms of the 10-year average yield.
Judging from the average percentage decline of about 5.63% from preceding month average 10-year interest rates for Feb 23 and Mar 23 Singapore Savings Bonds, I projected the floor (minimum) of average 10-year interest of Singapore April 2023 Savings Bonds as 5.63% off that of the March tranche and that works out to be 2.74% for the average 10-year interest of Singapore April 2023 Savings Bonds.
Hence I predicted the average 10-year interest of Singapore April 2023 Savings Bonds to be between 2.74% to 2.90% or 2.82% per annum.